Day one of the Tokyo Fuel Cell Expo 2007, and the sheer scale of the event cannot fail to impress. This is the Expos third year, and its continuing success has seen exhibitor numbers approach 500, with visitors expected to exceed 20,000 over the course of the three days. Walking around the main hall, as might be expected the majority of the exhibitors are Japanese, but there is still a strong international presence. There is, however, a more marked variation in the breadth of fuel cell-related products on display. I saw full systems for a wide spectrum of portable applications, residential units which Japan is traditionally strong in, transportation of various kinds, testing and ancillary equipment, as well as hydrogen infrastructure. From my cursory walk around this afternoon, there seems to be an absence of large scale fuel cell units on display, but in truth the hall is so vast that I may well have just missed them. I will have another look tomorrow.
There were three technical conference tracks this morning, and I attended Fuel Cell Positioning and Markets from the Viewpoint of Contending Technology. The first speaker I saw was Dr. Haruki Tsuchiya, President of the Research Institute for Systems Technology. Dr Tsuchiya compared the prospects of gasoline, hybrid, battery electric and fuel cell automotive technologies from a number of vectors (fuel economy, drive power, energy storage prevalent in the various systems, and expected learning effect potentials contributing to cost reduction). His conclusion was that oil availability would lead to the gradual introduction of replacement formats for the gasoline engine, but that infrastructure costs for the purely fuel cell-driven vehicles would be prohibitive for many years to come. He set out his contention that the near- to mid-term future would see a number of hybrid formats prevail, first gasoline-electric along the lines of the Toyota Prius, then gasoline-electric-hydrogen incorporating photovoltaic cells for on-board hydrogen generation. This idea of solar assisted vehicles (with the PV cells located on the roof) was new to me, but it is certainly interesting. I am unaware of any companies currently developing such systems, nor did Dr Tsuchiya name any. Although the presentation was largely pessimistic about the prospects of fuel cells being used for actual vehicle propulsion (although he said they would be used in an auxiliary capacity), it was refreshing to hear a speaker making such firm predictions. As with most efforts at guessing the outcome of technology competitions, the protagonists almost always turn out to be wrong and for some years now most experts shy away from the exercise altogether.
The next speaker was Mr Hideo Takeshita, Vice President of the Institute of Information Technology, who talked about fuel cells for mobile device use. He concentrated on the potential competition of fuel cells with Li-ion batteries (LIBs). By means of context, he said he started investigating the battery industry in 1991 when Sony brought out the first LIB. At the time, the prevailing technology was nickel-cadmium batteries (NIBs). To the amazement of many in the NIB industry, LIB performance equalled that of NIBs within 5 years, and a further 5 years on had all but completely displaced them as the battery of choice for most portable applications. His central line of inquiry was to speculate whether fuel cells might achieve a similar assault on the prevailing LIB technology. Despite a number of dramatic and well-publicised problems with LIBs in recent years (exploding laptops), he says that they will remain a viable technology for many years to come and in fact will assist the market growth of fuel cells as they will be deployed in tandem. Outright competition would probably not lead to a sole winner, but to ever-better integration of the two technologies leading to more powerful consumer products. He pointed out that LIBs are already deployed in fuel cell cars by major manufacturers such as Nissan and Toyota. Finally, he said that in the same way of the NIB manufacturers of the past, todays LIB producers are underestimating the rise of a new technology (i.e. fuel cells), and it would only take a relatively small rise in the cost of the raw materials required for LIB production for fuel cells to become regarded as a replacement technology rather than as a complimentary one.
Back to the exhibition hall, I visited two light duty vehicle developers pursuing very different approaches. First was Taigene of Taiwan, who have built a Fuel Cell No-Emission Scooter in collaboration with Japan Steel Works (JSW) and Asia Pacific Fuel Cell Technologies (APFCT). Theirs is a PEMFC/LIB hybrid scooter powered by 3 metal hydride canisters. JSW provide the hydride canisters, achieving 1.5% hydrogen storage by weight, APFCT provide the PEMFC, and Taigene provide the scooter body and play out the overall systems integration role. With a full compliment of 3 hydride canisters, the scooter can cover 100km at a cruising speed of 60 kph. Testing of the scooter will take place in March, and a full demonstration project of 20 scooters will begin in April in a science park. Although designated drivers only will trial them, the general public will have full view of the scooters being driven. The potential, I am told, is immense in Taiwan, which has 1 scooter for every 1.7 members of its population. Why would people be interested in taking up fuel cell scooters instead of sticking with conventional technologies, I asked. If Id experienced the local air quality and noise in the cities, I would know the answer to that question, I was told. This is by all measures a significant demonstration project, and the consortium of Taigene, JSW and APFC is looking at further infrastructure projects based on metal hydride hydrogen storage.
The other light duty vehicle developer I visited was Jinwoo Engineering of South Korea, who have built a demonstration wheelchair which uses a conventional lead-acid battery as well as a direct methanol fuel cell. Jinwoo makes its own stacks, and the system I saw had a maximum capacity of 140W with nominal capacities in the range of 50-100W. The approach Jinwoo Engineering has taken was to fit their stack on to a conventional electric wheelchair. The system uses the battery as the primary drive source, with the fuel cell taking over only when it is depleted. Under laboratory conditions, Jinwoo has run the wheelchair for a staggering 6 days of continuous use at a constant speed of under 10 kph without recharging the 1.2 litre methanol tank or recharging the battery. Field testing of the stack will take place in the near future in collaboration with other organisations, notably the Korean Broadcasting Service which is investigating their use in charging camera batteries.
Overall, the first day bodes well for the rest of the conference. At times the crowds were so dense it felt a little like I was on the Tokyo metro. It is loud, involving (one stand had some kind of darts game going on, with prizes), sometimes frustrating (when the translation earpiece stops working) but always interesting. The Fuel Cell Today stand has been busy, and it is gratifying to see that the recent move to having our market surveys translated in Japanese is proving popular.